The Russian economy and in particular the value of the ruble can rely, to be stable and prosperous, on a delicate balance between the Russian exports of raw materials, particularly oil and natural gas, and imports of consumer goods.
The first and second quarter of 2011 were characterized by phenomena that threaten to undermine the balance that has allowed, thanks also to the great efforts of the Russian central bank, to keep constant the rate 1 euro for lessthan 40 rubles and U.S. dollars for less 30.
This instability is caused by the volatility of oil prices, due to the instability present in the Middle East and fears of a contagion effect also involving Saudi Arabia, which so far has been the guarantor of the continuity of supply and of shock-free price of black gold.
On the other side instead we find an increase of imports in the first 5 months of 2011 which has reached a height of 49% over the previous year, with in particular a +146.9% of imports from CIS countries.
This factor drives several economists in Russia to forecast a strong devaluationof the currency within the next 10 months, which reduces the value of the ruble by 10-15%, probably gradually and around the presidential election of 2012. These predictions, however, were contradicted by official estimates of theMinistry of Economy, which predicts a devaluation only by 2014.
Excessive level of import growth, due to inadequate domestic production bothin prices and in terms of in quality, plus the likely decline in demand for crude oil in Europe and the U.S. which could lead with good possibility the price of oilbelow $ 70 per barrel, further reducing of the economic capacity of the Russian Federation and making a passive balance of trade.
The devaluation of the currency should help local producers who would be morecompetitive and is going to slow the uncontrolled growth of imports.
From the point of view of the GOST R certification and permit of application of Rostekhnadzor, the situation is not expected to change, or at most will register changes insignificant. The prices of services for foreign countries, such as the GOST certifcate, are historically more closely related to foreign currencies rather than the national one and therefore a possible devaluation of the ruble will not considerably affect the cost of certification.
From the point of view of the market however, the possible devaluation, could be a new barrier to entry for consumer products that you would find to be less convenient, although still superior to the average of those produced in Russia.
Finally, the possible devaluation could lead some investors to acquire equipment for production in the short term, hoping to take advantage of the devaluation later to produce at competitive costs.
The first and second quarter of 2011 were characterized by phenomena that threaten to undermine the balance that has allowed, thanks also to the great efforts of the Russian central bank, to keep constant the rate 1 euro for lessthan 40 rubles and U.S. dollars for less 30.
This instability is caused by the volatility of oil prices, due to the instability present in the Middle East and fears of a contagion effect also involving Saudi Arabia, which so far has been the guarantor of the continuity of supply and of shock-free price of black gold.
On the other side instead we find an increase of imports in the first 5 months of 2011 which has reached a height of 49% over the previous year, with in particular a +146.9% of imports from CIS countries.
This factor drives several economists in Russia to forecast a strong devaluationof the currency within the next 10 months, which reduces the value of the ruble by 10-15%, probably gradually and around the presidential election of 2012. These predictions, however, were contradicted by official estimates of theMinistry of Economy, which predicts a devaluation only by 2014.
Excessive level of import growth, due to inadequate domestic production bothin prices and in terms of in quality, plus the likely decline in demand for crude oil in Europe and the U.S. which could lead with good possibility the price of oilbelow $ 70 per barrel, further reducing of the economic capacity of the Russian Federation and making a passive balance of trade.
The devaluation of the currency should help local producers who would be morecompetitive and is going to slow the uncontrolled growth of imports.
From the point of view of the GOST R certification and permit of application of Rostekhnadzor, the situation is not expected to change, or at most will register changes insignificant. The prices of services for foreign countries, such as the GOST certifcate, are historically more closely related to foreign currencies rather than the national one and therefore a possible devaluation of the ruble will not considerably affect the cost of certification.
From the point of view of the market however, the possible devaluation, could be a new barrier to entry for consumer products that you would find to be less convenient, although still superior to the average of those produced in Russia.
Finally, the possible devaluation could lead some investors to acquire equipment for production in the short term, hoping to take advantage of the devaluation later to produce at competitive costs.
